December 2020
After three months of rebound, the US IT job market reversed course in November, shedding 8,300 jobs. That loss follows a 9,300-job gain in October, a 13,500 gain in September, and a 4,500 gain in August. For the year, the net loss of US IT jobs now stands at 81,100, still down from a peak high of 102,900 job losses this year as of August, according to the most recent survey of IT executives by management consultancy Janco Associates.
In November, “the major loss of jobs for IT professions was in [small businesses] and consulting firms that service them; 7.5 million small to mid-size business are disproportionately impacted by shutdowns,” said Janco CEO M. Victor Janulaitis. He said many of these closures escape notice because they shut down before their debt levels require going through bankruptcy court.
Large companies have also shuttered or retrenched, he said.
Three quarters of the lost IT jobs in the US are concentrated in two segments, he said. One is data processing, hosting, and related services, the other is computer systems design and related services.
“Hiring of IT professionals has all but stopped due to the uncertainty about the recovery,” Janulaitis said. And the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic this fall, and the likelihood that vaccinations will be largely complete only in summer 2021, suggests that IT jobs will be at risk for the foreseeable future, he said, as many businesses continue to shrink and many others put off anchoring until there’s more economic certainty.
November 2020
IT jobs lost at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic and its lockdowns continue to recover slowly, with an additional 12,700 US jobs added in October — bringing the total recovered jobs since August to 27,800. Those autumn gains bring the loss of US IT jobs to 75,100 for the year, down from a high of 102,900 job losses as of August, according to the most recent survey of IT executives by management consultancy Janco Associates.
The IT job market continues to struggle with the closure of many small- and medium-sized businesses and of many retail operations, in addition to broad cutbacks in all industries meant to preserve cash, said Janco CEO M. Victor Janulaitis.
In addition, the percentage of data center jobs has dropped from 10% of the US IT workforce to 9% since the pandemic began, indicating more severe cutbacks in back-end IT services as part of a shift to the cloud.
A separate report by Foote Partners, which conducts salary surveys on IT jobs and certifications, shows a mixed bag for IT pros in 2020, with some skills increasing in compensation despite (or because of) the pandemic, and others losing value. On average, though, IT compensation has held steady.
Gainers include a variety of positions involving security, Apache ZooKeeper distributed configuration, the Hbase SQL database, the Ethereum blockchain, Oracle Coherence caching, Marketo marketing automation, the Apache Flink stream-processing framework, natural language processing, master data management, and the Keras deep learning API.
Decliners include BusinessObjects and Cognos application development, Google App Engine and JSON web development, Oracle Application Server, SAP Enterprise Business Applications, SNA networking, mobile device management, Cisco’s UCCX call center platform, big data analytics, Windows NT, Suse Linux, and Tibco Enterprise Messaging Service.
October 2020
Although the IT and telecommunications job market in the US is still expected to shrink by 64,000 jobs this year compared to 2019, the recovery of IT jobs lost during the early days of the pandemic continued for a second month. The most recent survey of IT executives by management consultancy Janco Associates shows that about 12,200 IT jobs were added in September following a net gain of 6,900 in August.
At the outset of the pandemic, more than 105,000 US IT jobs were lost as companies retrenched in the face of COVID-19, more than erasing the 90,200 jobs added in all of 2019. Those losses have been partially addressed since through rehiring and new hires. As a result, over the last nine months, IT jobs were down by 85,000.
However, Janco doesn’t forecast a recovery in the IT job marked until spring 2021, as the US economy suffers new waves of infections that slow or even reverse prior gains. In October, an additional wave of IT layoffs is expected as airlines furlough tens of thousands of workers now that federal job subsidies have ended for that industry.
Companies are leery about expanding during uncertainties around government action, particularly the stalled stimulus efforts, said Janco president Victor Janulaitis. The November presidential election is another cause for companies to wait and see. “Spending for IT products and services has all but stopped as companies reevaluate the state of the economy globally as new waves of selected shutdowns occur,” he said.
September 2020
By Ken Mingis, Executive Editor, Computerworld
Although the U.S. IT and telecommunications job market is still expected to shrink by 64,000 jobs in 2020 versus 2019, the worst may be over – and about a third of the IT jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to have come back by 2021. That’s according to the most recent survey of IT executives by management consultancy Janco Associates.
For the first time in six months, August saw a net gain in the number of IT jobs: up 6,900. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised the number of IT jobs lost in July, showing 4,400 fewer jobs were lost than originally reported. Still, over the last 12 months, IT jobs fell by 81,800, nearly erasing the 90,200 jobs gained in 2019.
“IT hiring will remain soft but improving slightly. …Major many companies are resuming existing operations slowly, but are holding back on any expansion until after the [Nov. 3] election,” said Janco’s latest report.
But some sectors will continue to lose jobs, it noted, including the airline industry, which is poised to lay off tens of thousands of employees across all roles, not just IT, as federal COVID-related subsidies end on Sept. 30. Cities such as Portland, Ore. that have seen ongoing civil unrest due to protests over police killings of Black citizens will also see deferred hiring until the unrest subsides, Janco said.
IT organizations remain cautious on spending, with very few new initiatives or expansions of current efforts being funded beyond the initial rampup in work-from-home and social-distancing technology investments at the start of the crisis.
August 2020
Coronavirus spikes in parts of the U.S. in July have worsened hiring conditions for IT professionals, and management consulting firm Janco Associates now doesn’t expect any rebound in hiring until late this year or early in 2021.
Janco now estimates that just 25,000 new IT jobs will be created in 2020; there are now more than 163,000 fewer tech jobs than a year ago. In July alone, another 10,900 IT positions disappeared, the company said.
“We have found that a number of companies have already shuttered their doors or are expanding layoffs that impact the IT job market,” Janco CEO Victor Janulaitis said in a statement. “This includes oil and gas drillers like Whiting Petroleum and Diamond Offshore, retailers like J Crew, manufacturers like Briggs & Stratton, and grocers like Dean and DeLuca. As a result, IT professionals working for those companies are looking for new employment opportunities.
“Until after the election..., when the public feels [it] can go back to a normal life [and] more companies open their doors, hiring for new positions in IT will be limited at best,” he said. “In addition, the continued civil unrest is slowing confidence by the public, which in turn, hinders corporate confidence.”
He noted the stalemate in Washington, D.C. over new efforts to prop up the U.S. economy, as several states deal with increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases.
“Spending for IT products and services has all but stopped as companies reevaluate the state of the economy globally as new waves of selected shutdowns occur,” Janulaitis said. “With more companies adopting [work from home] to address ‘social distancing’ and avoid in-office contacts, fewer companies are taking an aggressive approach to any additional spending for IT products and services. It does not help that the U.S. Congress and the president are at a stalemate on pandemic relief.”
July 2020
The wave of IT layoffs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic did not end in May 2020 as expected, with June seeing 6,000 more layoffs as business uncertainties rose because of the increase in coronavirus infections in the U.S., according to new data from management consulting firm Janco Associates. The pandemic’s economic fallout had already led to about 117,000 job losses in U.S. IT positions in April and early May 2020.
The increase in COVID-19 infections across most U.S. states in June prompted the additional layoffs, and Janco’s June survey of U.S. IT organizations shows that further layoffs – though at the relatively small scale seen in June – are expected given business uncertainties. That survey also said that salary increases for IT staffers are “a thing of the past.”
The job losses were exacerbated by the extensive protests over the police killings of George Floyd and others, Janco said. That led to additional economic uncertainty, particularly in the retail industry hit by looting, leading to additional closings, deferred reopenings, and unexpected costs.
In addition, a Trump Administration decision last month to pause the use of H-1B visas, which are commonly used to fill IT positions, will not help U.S. IT pros in the near term, Janco noted. Because it applies to new hires it does little to free up existing positions.
IT organizations don’t expect to begin hiring again until late 2020 or early 2021, assuming that the infections are under control and the economic reopening interrupted in June can resume. Without a sustained reopening, companies won’t see demand for goods and services that provides the money for new and replacement hires.
Janco CEO Victor Janulaitis now expects the net number of new U.S. IT jobs in 2020 will be about 30,000, versus the 94,500 it had expected before the epidemic struck. In 2019, the U.S. IT job market grew by 90,200.
June 2020
The wave of IT layoffs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has ended, according to new data from management consulting firm Janco Associates. The pandemic’s economic fallout resulted in about 117,000 job losses in U.S. IT positions in April and early May 2020.
But Janco’s May survey of U.S. IT organizations shows that further layoffs are largely not expected. But neither is much IT job growth. IT organizations don’t expect to begin hiring again until late 2020, assuming that the gradual economic reopening now in progress continues and demand for goods and services resumes, providing the money for new and replacement hires.
Janco CEO Victor Janulaitis expects that the net number of new U.S. IT jobs in 2020 will be about 35,000, versus the 94,500 it had expected before the epidemic struck. In 2019, the U.S. IT job market grew by 90,200.
May 2020
It’s not yet at the level of “Brother, can you spare a dime?” for IT workers, as it is for many workers in retail, entertainment, and hospitality. But as it becomes apparent the road to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be take several years, IT pros are seeing layoffs in the U.S. and diminished prospects for future work, both as staff and as contractors.
In April 2020, IT pros saw 102,300 layoffs in the U.S., according to management consulting firm Janco Associates. And Janco has now more than halved the expected IT job growth in 2020 that it predicted just a month ago – to 40,000 versus the earlier prediction of 95,400 IT jobs.
Janco’s current projection for U.S. IT jobs this year is now 3.6 million, down from 2019’s 3.7 million U.S. IT jobs.
Companies have essentially stopped filling IT positions and halted new contract work, Janco CEO Victor Janulaitis said, based on conversations with CIOs and CFOs. That means IT pros who lose their jobs will have little prospect of employment or contract work in 2020.
“Until the public begins to feel they can go back to a normal lifestyle and companies open their doors, IT hiring will be nonexistent,” he said.
Janulaitis noted that there had been a surge in IT contract work at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis to help set up work-at-home environments, from collabration tools to VPNs. “The demand for contractor help in this effort was high initially, but now is non-existent,” Janulaitis said. The tech startup sector is also in crisis.
Janulaitis does expect IT hiring to begin picking up at the end of the year. That’s in line with the current thinking for the economy as a whole; various U.S. Federal Reserve executives and economists have said they expect the current effective jobless rate of about 23% to fall back but still be about 10% in 2021. The official jobless rate stands at 14.7% – versus 3.5% in 2019 – but that count misses recent layoffs, laid-off people not looking for work during the crisis, and the self-employed.
Broadly, expectations of a V-shaped recovery have given way to expectations of a prolonged decline and then slow recovery, since there is no vaccine for COVID-19, treatments and testing are not available at meaningful levels to determine who can work safely, it’s not known whether infected people develop immunity, and the ramifications of the various efforts now under way to reopen parts of society and economy remains unknown.
The fate of IT positions is not immune from these general economic factors. “All of this has put IT professionals the same state as the rest of the labor market,”Janulaitis said.